Analyzing the influence of the Tanzanian National Agriculture Policy on the productivity of crop farming.

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impact of the 2013 Tanzanian National Agriculture Policy (TNAP) on the productivity of Tanzanian farmers, using panel data and multiple regression models, such as fixed and random effects and pooled OLS models. The TNAP was introduced as a reaction to the food crisis in the late 2000's and early 2010's and aimed to modernize the agricultural sector through commercialization and enhanced farming techniques. Using nationally representative data covering the years both before and after the TNAP's introduction, this study first evaluates the policy's effectiveness in the aggregate agricultural sector, followed by a focused approach on cop-level. The aggregate analysis revealed no statistically significant effect of the TNAP on productivity. However, the crop-specific analysis uncovered a significant positive effect on both paddy and sorghum, which would suggest that the TNAP has had an impact within crop-specific sub-sectors. The robustness of these findings is ensured by large sample sizes and the use of clustered and robust standard errors. Limitations such as the absence of a control group, limited per-policy observations, and the fact that there have been some external shocks that could have influenced productivity, are acknowledged. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of tailoring agricultural policies to crop-specific and regional contexts. This thesis concludes that the TNAP did not achieve an overall productivity increase but on a crop-specific level it has contributed to productivity gains.