Changes in contact pattern due to measures based on SARS-CoV-2 certificates.

Abstract

We would like to implement COVID certificates into the model used to predict the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The model uses matrices to give a first order a to the spread of a disease in set time intervals. When introducing the COVID-19 certificates, certain assumptions made by the model do not hold anymore. Therefore we will need to adjust the model in a fitting way to retain the assumptions while still being able to implement the certificates. But when changing the model, the natural question arises: How much do we change the model by implementing the COVID certificates?

We will make this question our research question and will throughout the thesis try to answer it. By investigating, building and validating the model, we will build up the structure needed to answer the research question and will prove mathematical properties the model possesses. Not only will we look at the model itself, we will also investigate and build the process to change the model. Because of the multiple ways of changing the model, have we chosen to limit ourselves to researching the changes brought into the model due to changes in contact patterns.

After showing multiple ways to alter the contact patterns, we also relate the changes to the real world. When relating the degree of change in the contact pattern to the reproduction number, we see that a change in contact patterns of a certain degree does not imply that the reproduction number will change at all.