Euphoria and hangovers in direct democracy: the effects of winning, losing and abstaining in referendums on citizens’ referendum support

Abstract

The use of referendums has risen over the last decades and various surveys suggest that citizens are generally favourable towards referendums. However, as referendums create satisfying outcomes for citizens who vote for the majority option, they could generate ambivalent feelings among those who have lost or have not voted. Little is known about how this inequality affect winners’, losers’ and non-voters’ support for the instrument of a referendum. Based upon multiple-wave survey data from four referendums in Bavaria (Germany), Finland and the Netherlands, this study provides some evidence that referendum support increases among winners and decreases among losers of a referendum in the aftermath of a referendum, but the empirical evidence for a decrease in losers’ support is stronger. The perceived importance of a referendum and an unpredicted referendum outcome do barely amplify changes in support levels of winners and losers. The effects for non-voters’ support for referendums differ across cases. The study further shows that most citizens are positive or fairly positive about referendums. Although referendums have an impact on citizens’ attitudes towards the instrument, referendum support remains high or relatively high after a referendum, also among losers.