Global influenza dynamics and its consequences for containment strategies

Abstract

Seasonal in uenza is an easily transmittable disease which causes up to 500,000 deaths annually. There are three types of seasonal in uenza, of which in uenza A is the most common. The best protection against an in uenza infection is vaccination. Due to the fast evolution of in uenza, vaccines can become non-functional and therefore have to be updated regularly. Understanding the global circulation of seasonal in uenza helps deciding which strains should be included in the vaccine. In contrast, for novel in uenza strains that cause an in uenza pandemic a vaccine will not always be immediately available. Other strategies are necessary to buy time for the development of a vaccine. For both seasonal and pandemic in uenza, mathematical models are useful tools to simulate their global dynamics and methods to prevent their spreading. This thesis discusses the global dynamics of seasonal and pandemic in uenza, obtained from experimental data and mathematical modeling, and the way in which this information can be used to reduce in uenza infections.