Understanding Disparities in Social Housing Construction Across Dutch Municipalities

Abstract

Abstract This thesis investigates the drivers of disparities in social housing construction across Dutch municipalities, in the context of renewed national steering and a policy target aiming for 30 percent of all new housing to consist of social rental dwellings. Using a sequential mixed methods approach, the study first maps and models social housing construction between 2020 and 2023 across 338 municipalities, drawing on a unique dataset that combines housing corporation data (dVi and dPi) with contextual indicators from CBS. The quantitative analysis reveals substantial variation but limited explanatory power beyond the strong effect of existing social housing stock levels, suggesting a path-dependent dynamic. To better understand the mechanisms behind these disparities, interviews were conducted with municipal and housing corporation officials. The synthesis of the quantitative and qualitative findings points to three main conclusions: first, local governance is decisive, as political will and long-term municipal commitment are key enabling conditions for social housing construction; second, path dependence reinforces disparities, as municipalities with a larger stock tend to expand it further; third, a fragile but visible shift is underway, as national steering increasingly influences municipal planning behaviour. This study contributes to housing system theory by demonstrating that formally unitary systems can operate in residual ways at the local level, underscoring the need for more spatially sensitive analytical frameworks. At the same time, it offers timely empirical insight into how national housing construction ambitions interact with the practical realities of local governance and implementation. Only by understanding this interplay can housing policies be designed and refined to turn ambition into what ultimately matters: the actual construction of social housing.