A Central European Zeitenwende? Defense policy change in the Visegrád Four following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is widely described as a ‘turning point’ for European security. Yet whether this exogenous shock has actually produced fundamental changes to national defense policies remains contested. This thesis examines the extent to which the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to changes to the defense policies of the Visegrád Four states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary, whose historically divergent perceptions of Russia present a particularly interesting setting. The study builds on theories of exogenous shocks, rooted in historical institutionalism, and employs Hall’s (1993) taxonomy of policy change to distinguish between different orders of policy change. It conceptualizes the Russian invasion as an exogenous shock whose impact on defense policy is conditioned by fundamental shifts in states’ perceptions of Russia as a security threat. The findings demonstrate that the invasion did not fundamentally change perceptions of Russia as a security threat and did not produce radical defense policy transformations across the Visegrád Four states. Instead, Russia’s aggression resulted in changes to policy instruments, leaving prioritized core policy goals unchanged. The thesis contributes to debates on exogenous shocks and defense policy by demonstrating the analytical value of disaggregating policy change beyond binary notions of continuity versus rupture. Substantively, it highlights how articulated threat perceptions condition the extent to which major geopolitical shocks reshape defense policy. More broadly, the findings caution against assuming that moments framed as ‘turning points’ necessarily result in fundamental policy change.