Modelling the Effect of Clustering in Contact Networks on the Effectiveness of Contact Tracing

Abstract

At the request of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, during the COVID-19 pandemic, The National Institute for Public Health and the environment (RIVM) conducted a model study into the effectiveness of contact tracing, with the focus on effectiveness of the CoronaMelder. A model was created to simulate the epidemic with and without tracing and the use of the CoronaMelder app. In that model an assumption was made to take the effect of clustering in contact networks into account, not based on earlier publications. In our project we wanted to investigate if this assumption on how to implement the effect of clustering on the effectiveness of contact tracing is justified. Two models were created to simulate clustering in contact networks. The first model is a simplified version of the model used in the CoronaMelder study. In the second model epidemics spread on a clustered contact network to represent the process closer to reality. With these models contact tracing was simulated and compared.